Edward Luce for the FT:
How Netanyahu is ‘running rings’ around Biden (archived)
The US president had hoped to disentangle from the Middle East. But the turbulence in the region could influence the election and define his legacy“Netanyahu knows how to play the Washington game better than most US politicians,” says Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, now columnist for the Haaretz newspaper. “And he has been running rings around Biden.”
…
On countless occasions over the past year, Netanyahu has appeared to agree to one thing with Washington and done the opposite in practice. Whether it is wranglings over the terms of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release, or the more recent attempt at a 21-day ceasefire with Hizbollah, each time Biden is left looking impotent. “The Biden administration seems to be saying, ‘We’re suffering from a bit of autumn damp,’ ” says Pinkas. “No, this isn’t seasonal damp, it’s Netanyahu urinating all over you.”
This has been the general theme of a media campaign for a while. “Natanyahoo is steamrolling Biden and the poor guy can do nothing about it.”
I do not buy it. One phone call from the White House to the Pentagon would hold resupply flights from the U.S. to Israel. Without constant supply renewal the Israeli Air Force would have to stop its bombing campaigns in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen within days if not within hours.
But instead of calling the Pentagon the whole Middle East team around Biden, Antony Blinken, Brett McGurk and IDF soldier Amos Hochstein, has been urging Israel to extend its campaign.
They are hoping, like the neoconservatives in 2006 during the Bush administration, for the ‘birth pangs of a new Middle East’, which will forever change the strategic situation on the ground.
Behind the scenes, Hochstein, McGurk and other top U.S. national security officials are describing Israel’s Lebanon operations as a history-defining moment — one that will reshape the Middle East for the better for years to come.
The thinking goes: Israel has obliterated Hezbollah’s top command structure in Lebanon, severely undercutting the group’s capabilities and weakened Iran, which used Hezbollah as a proxy and power projector.
The internal administration division seems to have dissipated somewhat in recent days, with top U.S. officials convening Monday at the White House with President Joe Biden to discuss the situation on the ground. Most agreed that the conflict, while fragile, could offer an opportunity to reduce Iran’s influence in Lebanon and the region.
The conclusion from this is that Netanyahoo is largely doing exactly what the Biden administration wants him to do.
The strategic situation may well change. But it is not going to be the way Biden and Netanyahoo may hope for.
Most of the 200 missiles Iran fired on Israel two days ago passed through the Israeli air defenses and hit their targets with good precision. Some expensive air planes got damaged but no one was hurt. A similar strike on Israeli energy facilities could easily disable the country for months of years to come. A strike on IDF barracks or Israeli population centers could easily cause mass casualties.
Shortly after the strike President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud in Doha, Qatar:
The Saudi minister voiced his country’s determination to develop relations with Iran, Xinhua news agency reported.
“We seek to close the page of differences between the two countries forever and work towards the resolution of our issues and expansion of our relations like two friendly and brotherly states,” he said.
He highlighted the “very sensitive and critical” situation in West Asia due to Israel’s “aggressions” against Gaza and Lebanon and its attempts to expand the conflict in the region. He said Saudi Arabia trusted Iran’s wisdom and discernment in managing the situation and contributing to the restoration of calm and peace in the region.
Yesterday the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, held Friday prayers in Tehran. Little remarked in western media was the fact that he sermon was largely voiced in Arabic and that the whole event was seen on Arabic live TV through AlJazeerah.
This already is a new Middle East in which the Gulf states are no longer hostile to Iran and which the religious schisms between Sunni and Shia has largely lost its power.
Who then is left of the former U.S. allies? On whom can it call for support in the region when it plans to attack Iran?
Has this whole U.S.-Israeli campaign really helped to “reduce Iran’s influence in Lebanon and the region”? Will continuing it ever do so?
My impression for one is that it has strengthened the front against Israel and the positions of Iran in and beyond the Middle East.
