CASMII Iran Primer / April 2025

We are alarmed to once-again be witnessing a massive military build-up and preparations for an illegal US attack, this time against Iran, complete with a public relations offensive to manufacture consent for it. President Donald Trump campaigned on avoiding wars of choice and nation building. Yet his administration has continued supporting the Israeli ethnic cleansing and genocide in Palestine, bombing Yemen and threatening Iran with an attack that many experts see as the opening act to a new decades-long conflict in the Middle East, one that will inevitably go nuclear.

The International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg, which convicted the Nazi leaders after World War II, declared the crime of aggression, including planning, preparing, initiating, or waging a war of aggression, as the “supreme international crime” because it contains the accumulated evil of all other crimes.

The US, Israel and their European allies have committed this “supreme international crime” multiple times in recent history. They have launched illegal invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the illegal intervention and occupation of Syria, Lebanon, Libya and Palestine. They have become rogue states according to the rules of the institutions US and its allies set up after World War II to prevent aggression and genocide.

Iran’s Nuclear Program

1. US Intelligence says Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. US National Intelligence Estimates have consistently stated, including on 25 March 2025, that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon program now nor has it decided to pursue one [1].

2. Iran’s Leadership has a long-standing policy against all Weapons of Mass Destruction. The leader of the Islamic Republic issued a fatwa (religious edict of the highest order) in 2003 against the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons [2a]. Western countries actively supported, armed and supplied Saddam Hussein while he was using chemical weapons in his war of aggression against Iran. Ayatollah Khomeini rejected the suggestion that Iran produce its own chemical weapons in retaliation, and issued a fatwa against all weapons of mass destruction [2b].

3. Iran has the right to nuclear energy enshrined in International law. Both the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) ratified by Iran in 1970 and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by Iran in 2015 allow for civilian nuclear energy production in the country [3]. 

Hostilities toward Iran

4. Contrary to their projections, it’s the US and Israel that act irresponsibly with regard to nuclear proliferation. US and Israel’s aggressive opposition to Iran’s legitimate right to have a peaceful nuclear program has been a long term pretext for war and regime change in Iran to maintain US-Israeli regional supremacy and in confrontation with Russia and China. The US is the only country which has used nuclear weapons directly on non-military targets for the purpose of maximizing casualties. Its nuclear posture allows it to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states, and expressly against Iran. Israel has illegally acquired nuclear weapons, allows no safety inspections and has threatened to use them against Iran and the Palestinian population in Gaza [4a]. In clear violation of both international and its own domestic laws [4b], the US sells advanced weapons to a rogue nuclear weapons state [4c], and refuses to consider a regional nuclear-free zone if it means Israel also has to follow the rules.

5. Iran has been a victim of US aggression. Iran has never been a threat to the US or its European allies, but it has been the victim of the joint US-UK coup in 1953 which  overthrew the democratically elected government of Dr. Mossadegh and brought the despotic Shah back to power. Since 1979, Iranian people’s aspirations for political and economic independence have been thwarted by a bloody eight year war with Iraq which was supported by US [5a], UK [5b] and EU countries [5c][5d], followed by decades of US-Israeli led sanctions [5e], terrorism [5f][5g][5h], assassinations [5i][5j][5k], psy-ops [5l][5m], regime change [5n] plots, and chronic threats of military attack [5o][5p]. Iran’s ancient cultural heritage was explicitly targeted for destruction in January 2020 when the US president repeatedly threatened to destroy 52 Iranian cultural and historic sites [5q].

6. Iranian people suffer from devastating US imposed sanctions. Iran has been under sanctions since 1979, but in the past 20 years, they have intensified to be some of the most deadly forms of economic warfare in history. The US punishes other countries for trading with Iran, and purposefully targets Iran’s civilian sector in order to create political unrest [6a]. When time and time again these criminal instruments fail to achieve their goals, the only response from US administrations of both parties is to intensify the suffering to the “maximum”. These “unilateral coercive measures” are illegal under international law [6b].

7. US, UK and EU are violating many international obligations. As nuclear weapons state signatories of the NPT, the US and UK are obligated not just to tolerate but support civilian nuclear energy in non-weapons states while reducing –with the aim of completely eliminating– their own nuclear weapons [7a]. Iran’s enrichment of uranium well below the 90% level required for weaponization, is legitimate based on Iran’s rights under the NPT. None other than the Trump Administration itself regularly certified Iran’s full compliance with the JCPOA prior to pulling the US out of it in 2018. The remedial provisions of the JCPOA also support Iran’s position. The European trio members of the treaty (UK, France and Germany) are in violation of their obligations to remove sanctions on Iran [7b].

Consequences of an attack on Iran

8. War with Iran will be devastating for the world economy. If Iran is attacked by the US or its allies, Iran can successfully attack US bases in the region and defeat an invasion, according to multiple simulations by the US military [8a][8b][8c]. It can close the strait of Hormuz to shipping [8d], disrupting the flow of oil which could collapse the world economy [8e] after the disarray caused by Trump’s tariffs on all countries.

9. The US will be dragged into another costly decades-long war in the Middle East. The US and its allies can start a war against Iran but they will not be able to control, contain  or end it, forcing the US and its allies into a long war, which will create a conflagration in the region and worldwide, significantly damaging the US and its western allies [9]. 

10. Iran could change its nuclear posture. Ali Larijani as a senior advisor to the leader of the Islamic Republic has recently stated that if Iran is attacked by the US or its allies, Iran could  change its nuclear posture [10]. Any military attack on Iran under the pretext of stopping its non-existing nuclear weapons program will therefore have the opposite effect of reversing Iran’s decision not to acquire nuclear weapons.

Footnotes and Citations

[1] The US Director of National Intelligence stated: “The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/congressional-testimonies/congressional-testimonies-2025/4059-ata-opening-statement-as-prepared 

[2a] “Khamenei faces pressure from IRGC to rescind fatwa banning nuclear weapons – report”, Jerusalem Post, 2025. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-841264 

[2b] “When the Ayatollah Said No to Nukes”, Foreign Policy, 2014. https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/10/16/when-the-ayatollah-said-no-to-nukes/ 

[3] NPT gives Iran the right to civilian program, a fact acknowledged by the Council on Foreign Relations primer on Iran’s Nuclear Program (2012) “Under the terms of the NPT, signatories have the “inalienable right” to produce fuel for civilian energy production, either by enriching uranium or separating plutonium.” https://web.archive.org/web/20120220182315/http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-nuclear-program/p16811 

[4a] “Israeli minister renews call for striking Gaza with ‘nuclear bomb’”, Middle East Eye, 2024. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-minister-renews-call-for-striking-gaza-with-nuclear-bomb-/3117351 

[4b] See Amnesty’s April 29, 2024 article “U.S.-Made Weapons Used by Government of Israel in Violation of International Law and U.S. Law”. https://www.amnestyusa.org/press-releases/u-s-made-weapons-used-by-government-of-israel-in-violation-of-international-law-and-u-s-law

[4c] Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, March 21, 2025, “The US hypocrisy about Israel’s nuclear weapons must stop”. https://thebulletin.org/2025/03/the-us-hypocrisy-about-israels-nuclear-weapons-must-stop/ See also the 2016 lawsuit against the US for violating NPT. “Lawsuit claims US aid to Israel violates nuclear pact”, https://www.timesofisrael.com/lawsuit-claims-us-aid-to-israel-violates-atomic-pact/

See also the 2016 lawsuit against the US for violating NPT. “Lawsuit claims US aid to Israel violates nuclear pact”, https://www.timesofisrael.com/lawsuit-claims-us-aid-to-israel-violates-atomic-pact/ 

[5a] “New Details On How U.S. ‘Helped Saddam As He Gassed Iran’”, NPR, 2023. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/08/26/215733981/new-details-on-how-u-s-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran 

[5b] “UK Secretly supplied Saddam”, Financial Times, 2011. www.ft.com/content/52add2c4-30b4-11e1-9436-00144feabdc0 

[5c] “Leaked report says German and US firms supplied arms to Saddam”, The Independent, 2002. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/leaked-report-says-german-and-us-firms-supplied-arms-to-saddam-136466.html 

[5d] “French connection armed Saddam”, Washington Times, 2004. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/sep/8/20040908-123000-1796r/ 

[5e] Numerous sources have described the cruel, devastating and civilian-focused nature of the sanctions regime. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanitarian_impacts_of_U.S._sanctions_against_Iran 

[5f] “The Inside Story of America’s Favorite Terrorist Group”, The National Interest, 2011. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-inside-story-americas-favorite-terrorist-group-5776

[5g] “Israel teams with terror group to kill Iran’s nuclear scientists”, NBC News, 2012. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-teams-terror-group-kill-irans-nuclear-scientists-u-s-flna241673 

[5h] “Iran Jundullah leader claims US military support”, BBC, 2010. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8537567.stm

[5i] “Inside Israel’s history of assassinations in Iran”, The New Arab, 2024. https://www.newarab.com/analysis/inside-israels-history-assassinations-iran 

[5j] “Ex-intel chief confirms Israel’s role in Soleimani killing”, AP 2021. https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-iran-jerusalem-israel-military-intelligence-cfba78c69ae656697684ab92c4cac5b9 

[5k] “Qasem Soleimani: US strike on Iran general was unlawful, UN expert says” BBC News, 2020. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-53345885 

[5l] “Israel: Army employs blogger for online ‘psyops’, report says”, Middle East Eye, 2021. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-army-employs-blogger-psyops 

[5m] “UK psychological warfare unit collaborated with Israeli army”, Declassified UK, 2024. https://www.declassifieduk.org/uk-psychological-warfare-unit-collaborated-with-israeli-army/ 

[5n] “Bolton calls regime change the ‘only long-term solution’ in Iran”, Politico, 2018. https://www.politico.eu/article/john-bolton-former-un-ambassador-calls-regime-change-the-only-long-term-solution-in-iran/ 

[5o] “Clinton says US would ‘obliterate’ Iran”, Financial Times, 2008. https://www.ft.com/content/6f3969cc-107d-11dd-b8d6-0000779fd2ac 

[5p] “Trump threatens Iran if talks don’t go well”, USA Today, 2025. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/07/trump-threatens-iran-nuclear-talks/82980877007/ 

[5q] “Trump defends ‘war crime’ threat to target cultural sites in Iran”, Guardian, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/06/suleimani-killing-donald-trump-defends-threat-to-hit-cultural-sites-in-iran 

[6a] “Biden Iran envoy boasted of depriving civilians of food, driving up Iranian inequality in sadistic sanctions manual”, Gray Zone, 2021.

Biden Iran envoy boasted of depriving civilians of food, driving up Iranian inequality in sadistic sanctions manual

[6b] “Iran: Unilateral sanctions and overcompliance constitute serious threat to human rights and dignity – UN expert”, United Nations, 2022. https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2022/05/iran-unilateral-sanctions-and-overcompliance-constitute-serious-threat-human

[7a] According to Arms Control Association (2004) “NPT non-nuclear-weapon states agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and the NPT nuclear-weapon states in exchange agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology and to pursue nuclear disarmament aimed at the ultimate elimination of their nuclear arsenals.” https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004-11/book-reviews/avoiding-tipping-point 

[7b] When the US exited the JCPOA, the European signatories stated they would continue to implement JCPOA including lifting of sanctions, and created INSTEX as an alternative trade mechanism not controlled by the US.. However, in the face of threats from the Trump administration, the Europeans backed off and no real trade was conducted using the mechanism, leading to 94% drop in Iranian exports to Europe. See “INSTEX fails to support EU-Iran trade as nuclear accord falters”, EURACTIV, 2024. https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/instex-fails-to-support-eu-iran-trade-as-nuclear-accord-falters/ 

[8a] “The U.S. Lost a (Fictional) War With Iran 18 Years Ago”, Popular Mechanics, 2020. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a30392654/millennium-challenge-qassem-soleimani

[8b] “Simulated War Between U.S.-Iran Has Grisly End”, NPR 2012. https://www.npr.org/2012/09/24/161706698/simulated-war-between-u-s-iran-has-grisly-end 

[8c] “Chilling simulation shows how Iran vs Israel war could quickly spiral into nuclear WW3”, The Mirror, 2024. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/simulation-iran-israel-ww3-nuclear-32615911.amp  

[8d] “Iran’s Undisputed Weapon: Power to Block the Strait of Hormuz”, National Geographic, 2012. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/120206-iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil-supply 

[8e] “Iran could trigger ‘catastrophic energy crisis’ with control of world’s oil ‘chokepoints’”, Express UK, 2022. https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1629352/iran-news-war-trigger-catastrophic-energy-crisis-oil-gas-hormuz-security-defence-news 

[9] “The High Price of War with Iran: $10 Gas and the Collapse of the U.S. Economy”, former US congressman Dennis J. Kucinich, 2025. https://kucinichreport.substack.com/p/the-high-price-of-war-with-iran-10 

[10] “Iran Will Seek Nuclear Weapons if US Attacks, Top Official Says: ‘No Choice’”, Newsweek 2025. https://www.newsweek.com/iran-nuclear-us-attack-weapons-2053433